Past and Present Economic profile of Poland

Poland ‘s national anthem was composed by Jozef Wybicki, a Polish General. The loyal vocal was composed at a clip when Poland became a victim of her neighbors ‘ greed. The forced divider of Poland among Russia, Prussia and Austria in 1795, had wiped Poland wholly off the universe ‘s map. However, albeit the disappearing of Poland from the European continent ; the state remained in the Black Marias of the Poles. The national anthem, although antecedently was merely a vocal that had non yet attained national individuality, was genuinely a beginning of motive as the Poles marched and fought in order to be freed from the barbarous clasps of their neighbors.

1. Introduction

Poland is located in Central Europe ( Refer to Fig. 1 ) . Located in the Centre, the state is susceptible to the struggles that occur among her neighbouring states. It would hold been a miracle if Poland was non affected by the universe wars.

World War II had brought lay waste toing results to Poland, particularly to the figure of Poles. The high decease rate brought by the war resulted in a great diminution in Poland ‘s population figures.

However, in the past recent old ages, the grounds for the diminishing Polish population are less than gory.

Should the population figures continue to worsen because of these grounds – it would be an sarcasm to

Figure1. Map of Poland on the European Continent. Beginning: Topnews.in

the gap line of the state ‘s national anthem.

This clip, the “ disappearing ” of Poland would possibly, be caused by the Poles themselves.

This essay shall discourse the population alterations in Poland over the last 50 old ages. It shall supply an analysis of Poland ‘s population figures every bit good as history for such population tendencies. Besides, it will supply an analysis of the state ‘s age distribution in the twelvemonth 1990 and 2010 utilizing Poland ‘s population pyramid.

2. Analysis of Poland ‘s Population Figures

The graph ( Fig. 2 ) illustrates the alterations in the population figures in Poland from 1960 to 2009: –

Figure 2. Graph of Poland ‘s population figures 1960 – 2009 Beginning: GUS, 2010

Old ages

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Population figures ( ‘000 )

38294

38290

38277

38263

38254

38242

38219

38191

38174

38157

38125

38116

38136

38173

Table A. 1996 – 2009 Poland ‘s Population figures Table. Beginning: Central Statistical Office ( “ CSO ” ) , 2008

2.1 Population Figures Analysis

From 1960 to 1968, the graph is increasing steeply hence bespeaking a significant addition in Poland ‘s population figures. From 1969 to 1970, the graph shows a decline which is determining horizontally. This indicates a decreasing population. Harmonizing to the CSO ( 2008 ) , the exact lessening in population figure was 32.871 million to 32.658 million Poles. From 1970 to 1983, the graph is increasing instead invariably. This indicates that the population figure in Poland was increasing once more and at a changeless rate. In 1984, the graph begins to pacify. This shows that the population was increasing but at a low population growing rate. With mention to Fig. 3, the population growing rate declined aggressively from 0.9 % in 1984 to 0.1 % in 1996 ( WDI, 2010 ) . From 1996, the graph begins to farther gentle and takes on an about changeless horizontal form. This indicates a lessening in Poland ‘s population figures. From the informations Table A, we can farther infer these figures were diminishing at a minimum rate ( e.g. a lessening of about 4,000 between 1996 and 1997 ) . In 2009, the graph begins to somewhat increase thereby bespeaking a rise in population – from 38.136 million to 38. 173 million ( CSO, 2008 ) .

3. Reasons for Changes in Population figures

3.1 Population Policies

Population policies are implemented by the authorities to exercise influence and control over the population figures of a state. Policies are implemented either to restrict population growing or to hike population growing. In Poland ; series of different population policies had been implemented to react to the state ‘s economic conditions and demands.

3.1.1 Policies during the Post-War Period

During the Post-War period in the 1950s ; the communist authorities implemented population policies that were pronatalist. They encouraged Poles to get down a household and have kids by supplying child allowances. They besides gave lodging precedences to households. The communistic belief that ‘a big population represented societal verve ‘ was one influential factor to such policies execution. Another factor would be the authorities ‘s belief that there was a demand to increase the figure of population figures in order to replace the loss of the big figure of Poles during the war.

3.1.2 Policies in the Mid-1950s

In the Mid-1950s, the authorities reversed its pronatalist policies and enforced policies to cut down population growing. This was their response to the hapless economic conditions in the state. The authorities stopped supplying household support and started runs to promote Poles to hold smaller households. The authorities advocated the usage of birth controls and even went to the extent of legalizing abortion – a controversial move sing Poland is a preponderantly

Figure 3. Poland ‘s Population Growth Rate. Beginning: World Bank, World Development Indicators ( “ WDI ” ) ( 2010 )

Catholic state. The communist authorities besides increased adult females ‘s engagement in the labour force by promoting them to work.

These anti-natalist policies did non diminish the population figures rapidly ; nevertheless, it did take a toll on the rate of population growing during the sixtiess. Population growing overall decreased from 1.6 % in 1960, to -0.1 % in 1970 ( mention to Fig. 3, WDI ( 2010 ) ) . It was merely in 1969 to 1970, the population figures declined ( mention to Fig. 2 ) .

3.1.3 Policies in the seventiess

One might believe that the Polish authorities would be pleased upon happening Poland ‘s population decreasing in 1969. After all, their anti-natalist policies to promote smaller households and cut down population growing had proven to be effectual.

However this was non the instance.

The execution of these policies in the 1950s had resulted in the tendency of a decreasing Entire Fertility Rate ( “ TFR ” , refer to Fig. 4 ) , which lowered Poland ‘s overall population growing rate ( refer to Fig. 3 ) . Should the execution of anti-natalist policies were to go on, Poland would confront the quandary of most developed states – an aging population.

Therefore, the Polish authorities re-introduced pronatalist policies. This clip, the authorities provided better household

Figure 4. Poland ‘s Fertility rate. Beginning: World Bank, WDI ( 2010 )

allowances and modified the pregnancy leaves for female employees. 16 hebdomads of pregnancy leave were provided for a adult female ‘s first childbearing and 18 hebdomads given for every other subsequent consecutive childbearing.

Besides, in order to promote twosomes to get down a household and have kids, twosomes who have been married less than five old ages and are under the age of 30, were provided particular credits.

Harmonizing to the study Low Fertility and Population Ageing ( Grant et al. 2004 ) , childbirth allowances were provided in 1974, to female employees or to the married womans of male employees. This was an inducement to farther promote more Poles to hold kids. By 1978, this policy extended to all citizens – both employed and unemployed.

These policies were effectual because population figures began to increased after 1970 ( mention to Fig 2 ) . Harmonizing to WDI ( 2010 ) ( refer to Fig. 3 ) , from 1970 to 1971, the population growing rate aggressively increased from 0.1 % to 0.9 % . This was followed by a short lessening in population growing rate during 1971 to 1972, but so a continued addition once more until 1974 ( from 0.8 % in 1972 to 1.0 % in 1974 ) . The addition in population growing is attributed by the addition in TFR of about an norm of 2.26 from 1970 to 1974 ( WDI, ( 2010 ) ) . The population growing rate maintained at 1.0 % up till 1977 ( WDI, ( 2010 ) ) .

After 1977, the population growing started to diminish once more ( 1.0 % in 1977 to 0.7 % in 1979, refer to Fig. 3 ) .

3.1.4 Policies in the eightiess

The pronatalist policies implemented in the seventiess were effectual in the 1980s to a certain extent. This is because although the population was increasing, the population growing rate was still comparatively low ( less than 1.0 % , refer to Fig. 3 ) in the 1980s. The authorities responded by presenting other signifiers of allowances to promote the Poles to hold kids ( e.g. childcare allowance ) .

These excess household inducements were non really effectual because TFR began to worsen in 1984. Harmonizing to WDI ( 2010 ) , TFR decreased from 2.4 to 2.1 from 1984 to 1989 ( mention to Fig. 4 ) . TFR was below replacing degree birthrate ( i.e. about 2.2 harmonizing to Hanyutin, 2007 ) and Poland ‘s population growing began to diminish aggressively ( 0.9 % in 1984 to 0.3 % in 1989, refer to Fig. 3, WDI ( 2010 ) ) .

3.2 Economic Passage

The alterations in population figures in the ninetiess are besides a consequence of an economic passage. In 1989, together with the do-away of the Communist government in Poland, the state ‘s economic system shifted from a planned economic system to a free economic system.

3.2.1 Effectss of the Economic Passage

The economic passage negatively affected Poland. The displacement to a free economic system resulted in a high Numberss of layoffs, thereby increasing the unemployment rate. Housing and nutrient deficits were prevailing in the state.

In response to the negative life conditions, the Polish authorities spent big sum of money on societal disbursement. Unemployment benefits and pension benefits are some of the illustrations of societal outgo. Besides, services such as schools were privatised. Denationalization of services was needed for the restructuration of the public resources which are used to supply financial-support for public ventures.

The ensuing societal and economic jobs were the grounds for the low population growing rate during the 1990s ( 0.4 % in 1990 to 0.1 % in 1995. Mention to Fig. 3, WDI ( 2010 ) ) and the eventual lessening in population in 1996 ( mention to Postpone A ) . The economic troubles prevented and/or delayed birth hence doing the rapid lessening TFR. TFR declined from 2.1 in 1991 to 1.2 in 1993 ( mention to Fig.4, WDI ( 2010 ) ) . The replacing degree was really low.

3.2.1 Theories for the worsening Entire Fertility Rate

The diminution in birthrate rate in Poland during the 1990s may be explained through theories. Grant et al. 2004 ) mentioned that the theories relevant to Poland ‘s worsening tendency in birthrate rate are rational pick theory and hazard antipathy theory.

Grant et Al. ( 2004 ) stated that rational pick theory explains the diminution in TFR based on the person ‘s belief that the “ cost of holding kids outweighs the benefits ” . Persons, who have this perceptual experience, are hence loath to hold kids. Therefore, the diminution in the TFR may hold been a consequence of more Poles with the position that holding kids would hold a dearly-won economic consequence on them.

The hazard antipathy theory explains the diminution in TFR based on people ‘s insecurities as to the hereafter. Harmonizing to a Report on the Fertility Decision Making Project ( Weston et al. 2004 ) , these insecurities deter persons to hold kids and alternatively influences them to put on present securities such as instruction and employment because to them, holding kids is a ‘risk ‘ . Using this theory to Poland ‘s diminishing TFR ; as more Poles are concern for their plants stableness, they are more are loath to hold kids.

3.3 Western Influence

During the olden times, Poles married at an early age and it was common for their matrimonies to last for a long period. This is caused by the strong influence of the Catholic Church.

However, in the recent old ages, the Western civilization has really much changed the Polish traditions and values. Harmonizing to Kotoska et Al. ( 2008 ) , the figure of Poles acquiring married fell since 1989, together with the addition “ of adulterous births ” . Divorce figures non merely rose but, alternatively of following the conventional ‘early-marriage tradition ‘ , more Poles were get marrieding at a ulterior age.

The authorities besides had a portion to play in the influential function of the Western civilization. As mentioned, they legalised abortion and promoted birth controls.

These alterations in Polish traditions and values negatively affected Poland ‘s birth rate. However, a more definite factor for the diminution in birth rates would be the Western civilization ‘s successfully influence over the Polish adult females.

3.3.1 Increase figure of adult females in the work force

Womans in Poland are dramatically come oning in both instruction and work. Harmonizing to the study, Women in Poland ( U.S Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration, 1995 ) ; even in the sixtiess when Poland was under the Communist government ; 44 per centum of the work force was already dominated by adult females. In 1992, with the influence of the economic passages, their labour engagement rose to 46 % , about half of the labour force.

Western influences enabled adult females to hold greater independency. This independency includes the ability to do determinations with respects to their birthrate. Hence, their active engagement in the labour force may hold influenced them to be more committed to their occupations instead that desiring to hold kids. Therefore this is another factor imputing to the low TFR.

4. Poland Population Pyramid Analysis

In this subdivision of this essay ; we shall analyze and compare two population pyramids and history for the demographic alterations in Poland.

1990

In 1990, Poland ‘s population pyramid form is about triangular. The pyramid has a broad base and a narrow vertex ; near to the common pyramid construction of a underdeveloped state. The broad base indicates a high birth rate during the recent old ages ( 1981 to 1985 ) . There are besides a high per centum of immature dependants ( aged 0-14 ) . The narrow vertex represents a comparatively low per centum of aged dependants aged 65 old ages and supra. It besides indicates a low life anticipation.

Figure 5 Poland ‘s Population pyramid 1990. Beginning: US Census Bureau ( 2003 )

The lower proportion of work forces to adult females aged 65 old ages and above, could be a consequence of the higher figure of work forces that went for war. In the center ; the construction is comparatively high, bespeaking a high-economically active group. The significant figure of 30-34 and 35-39 age groups is a consequence of the high Numberss of births that occurred during the post-war period ( 1950s ) .

At the base, we are besides able to detect that the 0-4 age group is lower than the 5-9 age groups. This portrays a worsening birth rate that could be a consequence of the negative consequence of the economic passage from a planned market to a free market.

2010

Poland ‘s population pyramid in 2010 is barrel-shaped. The narrow base indicates a low birth rate and a lower figure of immature dependants as compared to 1990. The vertex of the pyramid is wider as compared to the narrow top in the 1990 ‘s population pyramid. This indicates a higher figure of aged dependants and a higher life anticipation. Harmonizing to Grant et Al. ( 2004 ) , the alterations in life anticipation may be due to the diet alteration ( e.g. alterations in intoxicant ingestion ) and improved medical attention. The grounds of

Fig 6 Poland ‘s Population pyramid 2010, Beginning: US Census Bureau ( 2003 )

betterment in medical attention in Poland can be substantiated by the Case Study – Poland ( Marek, M. et al. ) . The instance survey stated that “ primary wellness attention and household medical specialty ” had been improved since 1991 because there had been an addition focal point of “ developing wellness professionals ” .

The population in Poland in 2010 is ageing. The age groups in the center are preponderantly high except for the 40 – 44 age group – which shows a narrow construction. The low figure of people in this age group can be attributed by the fact that some of the Poles in this age group were born around 1969 to 1970, when the population figures were worsening.

5. Decision

What we can reason from the recent demographic tendencies would be that population figures are now more influenced by the alterations in the society ( e.g. western influence ) instead than the execution of policies.

Although the authorities had begun with their pronatalist policies in the early 1970s, these policies were effectual merely to a certain extent. Population figures increased for some period of clip but they were non changeless. Since the 1990s, there was a prevailing decreasing population figures and population growing rate. Besides, the policies were non plenty to forestall Poland ‘s population from ageing.

The inability to act upon the population like antecedently during the 1970s and 1980s is attributed by the alteration of values in people. The addition instruction of both work forces and adult females and the situational factors ( such as hapless economic system ) plays a larger portion to the people ‘s determination to whether to hold little or large households.

At present, ( with mention to Fig. 2 and 3 ) , we are able to detect that the population figures have increased from 2008 to 2009. Although such figures are little – it does bespeak a possible positive bend to Poland ‘s demographics. However, this addition in population figures is non so much caused by the pronatalist policies, but due to the higher figure of people who were born in the 1970s 1980s holding kids themselves.

Possibly, the Polish population will non vanish in the custodies of the Poles themselves, after all.

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